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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 11 <br /> Births and Birth to Kindergarten Ratios <br /> Live births in North Carolina have recovered from the pandemic low and reached about 121,013 in 2024, up from <br /> 116,755 in 2020. Although this represents a modest rebound, births remain below the peak levels observed in the late <br /> 2000s and early 2010s. <br /> Historical Live Births in North Carolina <br /> 150,000 <br /> 1204247.0 302 120 826 � 121.013 <br /> 100,000 <br /> 50,000 <br /> 0 <br /> 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 <br /> Source;NC Birth Records;NC State Center(or Health Statistics;Demographic Analytics Advisors(DAA)Forecast <br /> A comparison of kindergarten ADM (Month 2) with five-year lagged births for North Carolina shows a clear downward <br /> shift in the kindergarten-to-birth ratio over the period. Although births five years earlier remain relatively high through <br /> 2020, kindergarten enrollment is consistently lower and the ratio falls from about 0.90 in 2016 to roughly 0.78 by 2026, <br /> indicating fewer children entering kindergarten per birth cohort. The largest gap appears around 2021, when the ratio <br /> dips to about 0.75, reflecting pandemic-related disruptions to births and/or enrollment behavior. <br /> C A R O L I N A UP TJNC CAROLINA _ Demographic 8 <br /> DEMOGR _ PHYlPOPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors <br /> a <br />