Agenda 04-07-2026; 7-a - Presentation of School Enrollment Forecast

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Demographic Study I Student Membership Forecast 10 Enrollment vs.ADM by Year: North Carolina 1,600.000 1,400,000 C 7 O U 1,200,000 1,000,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Year ADM Enrollment Source:NCDPI In fact, only 8 school districts saw increases in month 2 ADM at all, and only one of these (Brunswick County Public Schools) saw an increase of over 100 children — and Brunswick County is the 11th fastest growing county in the United States. The table below shows the top and bottom 5 school districts in terms of gain or loss of ADM as well as both CHCCS and OCS. As we can see, both CHCCS and OCS declined by around 3% year over year. The largest percentage increase in the state was in Washington County Schools with a 2.7% increase. However, that increase is still less than 100 students. The largest percentage declines were seen in Roanoke Rapids and Granville County both losing over 6% of their student population year-over-year. Month 2 ADM Changes,2025-26 vs.2024-25,Selected LEAS NUMERIC CHANGE FROM PERCENTAGE CHANGE RANK 2025-26 2024-25 FROM 2024-25 North Carolina 0 1,345,074 -23,457 -1.7% Washington County Schools 1 1,001 26 2.7% Asheville City Schools 2 3,797 78 2.1% Brunswick County Schools 3 13,669 194 1.4% Haywood County Schools 4 6,333 35 0.6% Alleghany County Schools 5 1,286 7 0.5% Orange County Schools 77 6,716 -192 -2.8% Chapel Hil I-Carrboro City Schools 85 10,758 -341 -3.1% Martin County Schools 111 2,416 -131 -5.1% Jones County Schools 112 903 -51 -5.3% Elkin City Schools 113 1,156 -70 -5.7% Roanoke Rapids City Schools 114 2,439 -159 -6.1% Granville County Schools 115 5,860 -413 -6.6% *Source:Month 2 ADM by LEA,North Carolina Public Schools Statistical Profile,NC DPI C A R O L I N A ��T T� CAROLINA _ Demographic 7 D E M O G R P H Y 0 l.J 1 �l POPULATION CENTER Analytics Advisors a