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1 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br /> ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT <br /> Meeting Date: December 1, 2025 <br /> Action Agenda <br /> Item No. 8-i <br /> SUBJECT: Approval of School Enrollment Forecasting Contract with UNC <br /> DEPARTMENT: County Manager <br /> ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br /> Attachment 1. Enrollment Forecast Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 <br /> Contract <br /> PURPOSE: To approve an intergovernmental agreement with UNC for the Carolina Population <br /> Center's Carolina Demography to conduct an enrollment forecast for both school districts. <br /> BACKGROUND: Over the past two (2) years, the School Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance <br /> Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC), a technical advisory committee representing the <br /> County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools and <br /> Orange County Schools, have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate Public <br /> Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projections, based on commonly identified limitations <br /> of the process. <br /> At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of Commissioners authorized staff to <br /> provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that the <br /> student projection methodology would be changed to be one employed by Operations Research <br /> and Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography. On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC <br /> held its annual meeting, and received presentations from both consultants. The six (6) entities <br /> voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to provide future enrollment projections. <br /> The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety of variables that were used in Carolina <br /> Demography's previous enrollment projections, including population estimates, births, approved <br /> developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina Demography currently provides <br /> enrollment projections for Wake County and Brunswick County. <br /> At the April 15, 2025 Business meeting, the Board of Commissioners approved the SAPFOTAC <br /> recommendation, selecting Carolina Demography to contract with the County. The FY 2025-26 <br /> annual budget includes $36,000 in funding for the contract. County staff has been working with <br /> the University on entering a contract, noting that the contract required Board approval as UNC is <br /> a governmental unit. Despite the delay finalizing a contract, Carolina Demography has already <br /> begun its work in good faith and has entered into data sharing agreements with the two school <br /> districts. Carolina Demography still anticipates completing the analysis in January and being <br /> available to present its results to the Board in February 2026. <br />