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26 <br /> Nathan Dollar said yes and that private schools and homeschools are the two slipperiest <br /> data points and they are working on ways to improve that. <br /> Vice-Chair Hamilton asked who are the demographic analytic advisors are. <br /> Nathan Dollar said they are partners and they are a private firm that they have been <br /> working with for yers. <br /> Vice-Chair Hamilton said one of the things she's seen since she's lived here is turnover in <br /> specific neighborhoods. She asked that is picked up and accounted for. <br /> Nathan Dollar said they would look at the census track data and age structure per unit. He <br /> said that local historical data would be used. He said that older units tend to be occupied by <br /> younger families due to affordability. He said some assumptions will have to be made, but they <br /> will be very clear about what those assumptions are. He said they will do groundwork to verify <br /> their assumptions and data. <br /> Commissioner Fowler asked if this is supposed to be better because of the many other <br /> factors that will be included in the forecasting. <br /> Kirk Vaughn said it will also be more flexible to trends vs. having to wait and see and a <br /> more correct prediction. <br /> Nathan Dollar said they look at historical birth to kindergarten ratios and then build a <br /> pattern. He said they also look at grade progression ratios and migration patterns. <br /> Commissioner Fowler said a lot of people used to come for sabaticals and they would <br /> bring children. She said it seems that has went down after COVID. <br /> Nathan Dollar said they will be able to see the in and out migration. He said it would not <br /> be individual level data. He said in CHCCS there was a lot of out migration of school aged children <br /> in the years following the pandemic. <br /> Chair Bedford said SAPFO is used for school building planning purposes. She said when <br /> budgeting for enrollment, they have been using DPI's data. <br /> Kirk Vaughn said this change is mainly for capital building purposes. He said the DPI data <br /> will still be used for operating budgets. <br /> Commissioner Fowler asked if pre-K is included. <br /> Kirk Vaughn said enrollment projections and capacity calculations did include that. <br /> Chair Bedford asked if it is state law to use DPI for operating budgets. <br /> Travis Myren said no. He said the county has historically funded more students than show <br /> up in the classroom. He said a discussion could occur between the county and school districts <br /> about what methodology to use for the operating budget in the future. <br /> Slide #11 <br /> CAROLINA <br /> DEMOGRI PHY <br /> u <br /> Work With UsSign up for our Contact us via <br /> newsletter: our website: <br /> What questions do you have E E 2 <br /> about yourcommunity? <br /> What data •• you need to <br /> make better d • ❑� NEI <br /> carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu <br />