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23 <br /> Slide #4 <br /> What is an enrollment forecast? What is it not? <br /> What is it? <br /> • A scientific"most likely"scenario based on all inputs. <br /> • Avery useful planning tool, if used correctly and questioned. <br /> What is it not? <br /> • A crystal ball that will tell us,with complete accuracy,what <br /> enrollment will be in 10 years. <br /> • A random and wild guess at what enrollment will be in 10 <br /> years. <br /> CAROLINA <br /> �UNC POPO CAROLINA LATIONCENTER carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu DEMOM PHY <br /> Slide#5 <br /> What is the goal of the enrollment forecast process? <br /> To develop reasonable enrollment forecasts that take <br /> into account: <br /> a) Demographic processes(i.e., births, migration) <br /> b) Historical enrollment patterns <br /> c) Potential changes in charter and private school <br /> expansions (i.e., market share) <br /> d) Local Development <br /> e) COVID-19 effects <br /> T TATC CAROLINA CAROLINA <br /> j carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu DEMOGRAPHY <br /> POPULATION CENTER <br /> Slide #6 <br /> Enrollment Forecasts: A Collaborative Effort <br /> CAROLINA <br /> DEMOGRLPHY ^ <br /> Demographic y/, nge <br /> y <br /> Anal tics Advisors soh <br /> ��nR! <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> NORTH CAROLINA <br /> J NC CAROLINA caroli nademography.cpc.unc.edu C A R O L I N A <br /> 2`J 1 V POPULATION CENTER D E M 0 G R t-.P H Y <br />