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21 <br /> A motion was made by Commissioner Fowler, seconded by Commissioner Greene, to <br /> approve the FY26 Annual Work Program for transit (Attachment 2). <br /> VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> 3. Regular Agenda <br /> a. Change in Student Projection Methodology to be Used in Future Annual SAPFOTAC <br /> Reports <br /> The Board received a presentation from staff from Carolina Demography and authorized staff to <br /> change the student projection methodology of future annual School Adequate Public Facilities <br /> Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) reports to a methodology employed by <br /> Carolina Demography. <br /> BACKGROUND: Over the past two (2) years, the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee <br /> representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro <br /> City Schools and Orange County Schools, have discussed making improvements to the School <br /> Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly <br /> identified limitations of the process. <br /> The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based <br /> primarily on historic enrollment. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in <br /> the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent <br /> with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large <br /> development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in <br /> classrooms, and even then, a three-, five-, or ten-year average would only begin reflecting those <br /> increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options <br /> outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space <br /> needs in a single year rather than over time. <br /> At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of Commissioners authorized staff to <br /> provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) that the student <br /> projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by the Operational Research and <br /> Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography. In accordance with the SAPFO <br /> Memoranda of Understanding, a letter was sent to the SAPFO partners in January inviting <br /> comment on the proposed change. No comments were received. <br /> On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from <br /> both consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to <br /> provide future enrollment projections. The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety <br /> of variables that were used in Carolina Demography's previous enrollment projections, including <br /> population estimates, births, approved developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina <br /> Demography provides enrollment projections for Wake County and Brunswick County. <br /> Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director, reviewed the background information for the item and <br /> introduced Nathan Dollar of Carolina Demography. <br /> Nathan Dollar made the following presentation: <br />