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55 <br /> Section II <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory <br /> Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br /> certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting <br /> from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership <br /> projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- <br /> year growth rate that may be positive or negative, but rather the average of the annual <br /> anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage <br /> on the attachments show a decline in student growth on the attachments show a decline <br /> membership at each school level within the in student membership at each school <br /> system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate level within the system. Projected <br /> over next ten years: Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br /> ten years: <br /> School Year Projection Made Year Projection Made <br /> Level 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- School 2020- 1 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- <br /> 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Level 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 <br /> Elementary -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% -0.37% <br /> Middle -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% -1.2400 Elementary -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% -0.10% <br /> High -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% -1.740o Middle -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% -0.52% <br /> High -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% -0.10% <br /> 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> Use statistics as noted for this year. In Use statistics as noted for this year. In <br /> December 2024, the Board of County December 2024, the Board of County <br /> Commissioners authorized notification to the Commissioners authorized notification to <br /> parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the <br /> projection methodology will be changed to either student projection methodology will be <br /> the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina changed to either the one employed by <br /> Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited (OREd)or Carolina Demography. The <br /> 38 <br />