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45 <br /> Section H Attachment I1.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2024-25) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 7 students below to 38 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 17 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 61 students between November 15, 2023 and <br /> November 15, 2024. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mostly low, ranging from 18 students below to 3 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 10 students below actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 3 students between November 15, 2023 and <br /> November 15, 2024. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 10 students below to 23 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 8 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 13 students between November 15, 2023 and <br /> November 15, 2024. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 2 to 46 students <br /> above actual membership. On average, the projections were 15 students above actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 71 students, which is the sum of -61 at <br /> Elementary, +3 at Middle, and -13 at High. <br /> 28 <br />