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39 <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION I CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n <br /> O <br /> Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight tine projection �((c*b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti <br /> CHCCS) y--projected population;c=histofical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BY€+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o a increase in BYt of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n /oSL=/o <br /> =projection year; of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=%of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year bu[Idout constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> A� <br /> n <br /> Kn=k n.t+(kn.,"0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 CD <br /> C <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(F G„I g,j)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the ^r <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade leve€; assumes the same ~i <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year i--i <br /> andlor historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership .fir <br /> C <br /> CD <br /> Cy <br /> Kn=k n.;+(kn-, 0,01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn!gn.T)f 5 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the CD <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade levet and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same a. <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the neat level each year v� <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average , <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership ro <br /> _O <br /> Kn=k n-1+(k,1*0.01) n• <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 C <br /> advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(Z Gn 19,1)110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the C <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade levet; assumes the same d <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school levet;an assumed b=g n-1(a) percentage of students in each grade level y <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year n <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average "C <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership C <br /> C <br /> rn <br />