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26 <br /> 1 Nathan Dollar said yes and that private schools and homeschools are the two slipperiest <br /> 2 data points and they are working on ways to improve that. <br /> 3 Vice-Chair Hamilton asked who are the demographic analytic advisors are. <br /> 4 Nathan Dollar said they are partners and they are a private firm that they have been <br /> 5 working with for yers. <br /> 6 Vice-Chair Hamilton said one of the things she's seen since she's lived here is turnover in <br /> 7 specific neighborhoods. She asked that is picked up and accounted for. <br /> 8 Nathan Dollar said they would look at the census track data and age structure per unit. He <br /> 9 said that local historical data would be used. He said that older units tend to be occupied by <br /> 10 younger families due to affordability. He said some assumptions will have to be made, but they <br /> 11 will be very clear about what those assumptions are. He said they will do groundwork to verify <br /> 12 their assumptions and data. <br /> 13 Commissioner Fowler asked if this is supposed to be better because of the many other <br /> 14 factors that will be included in the forecasting. <br /> 15 Kirk Vaughn said it will also be more flexible to trends vs. having to wait and see and a <br /> 16 more correct prediction. <br /> 17 Nathan Dollar said they look at historical birth to kindergarten ratios and then build a <br /> 18 pattern. He said they also look at grade progression ratios and migration patterns. <br /> 19 Commissioner Fowler said a lot of people used to come for sabaticals and they would <br /> 20 bring children. She said it seems that has went down after COVID. <br /> 21 Nathan Dollar said they will be able to see the in and out migration. He said it would not <br /> 22 be individual level data. He said in CHCCS there was a lot of out migration of school aged children <br /> 23 in the years following the pandemic. <br /> 24 Chair Bedford said SAPFO is used for school building planning purposes. She said when <br /> 25 budgeting for enrollment, they have been using DPI's data. <br /> 26 Kirk Vaughn said this change is mainly for capital building purposes. He said the DPI data <br /> 27 will still be used for operating budgets. <br /> 28 Commissioner Fowler asked if pre-K is included. <br /> 29 Kirk Vaughn said enrollment projections and capacity calculations did include that. <br /> 30 Chair Bedford asked if it is state law to use DPI for operating budgets. <br /> 31 Travis Myren said no. He said the county has historically funded more students than show <br /> 32 up in the classroom. He said a discussion could occur between the county and school districts <br /> 33 about what methodology to use for the operating budget in the future. <br /> 34 <br /> 35 Slide #11 <br /> CAROLINA <br /> DEMOGRI PHY <br /> u <br /> Work With UsSign up for our Contact us via <br /> newsletter: our website: <br /> What questions do you have E El M <br /> about yourcommunity? <br /> What data do you -• to ME]make betterd • ❑� <br /> G <br /> carclinadernography.cpc.unc.edu <br /> 36 <br />