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21 <br /> 1 A motion was made by Commissioner Fowler, seconded by Commissioner Greene, to <br /> 2 approve the FY26 Annual Work Program for transit (Attachment 2). <br /> 3 <br /> 4 VOTE: UNANIMOUS <br /> 5 <br /> 6 3. Regular Agenda <br /> 7 a. Change in Student Prosection Methodology to be Used in Future Annual SAPFOTAC <br /> 8 Reports <br /> 9 The Board received a presentation from staff from Carolina Demography and authorized staff to <br /> 10 change the student projection methodology of future annual School Adequate Public Facilities <br /> 11 Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) reports to a methodology employed by <br /> 12 Carolina Demography. <br /> 13 <br /> 14 BACKGROUND: Over the past two (2) years, the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee <br /> 15 representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro <br /> 16 City Schools and Orange County Schools, have discussed making improvements to the School <br /> 17 Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly <br /> 18 identified limitations of the process. <br /> 19 <br /> 20 The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based <br /> 21 primarily on historic enrollment. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in <br /> 22 the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent <br /> 23 with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large <br /> 24 development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in <br /> 25 classrooms, and even then, a three-, five-, or ten-year average would only begin reflecting those <br /> 26 increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options <br /> 27 outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space <br /> 28 needs in a single year rather than over time. <br /> 29 <br /> 30 At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of Commissioners authorized staff to <br /> 31 provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) that the student <br /> 32 projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by the Operational Research and <br /> 33 Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography. In accordance with the SAPFO <br /> 34 Memoranda of Understanding, a letter was sent to the SAPFO partners in January inviting <br /> 35 comment on the proposed change. No comments were received. <br /> 36 <br /> 37 On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from <br /> 38 both consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to <br /> 39 provide future enrollment projections. The technical advisory committee appreciated the variety <br /> 40 of variables that were used in Carolina Demography's previous enrollment projections, including <br /> 41 population estimates, births, approved developments, and charter school enrollment. Carolina <br /> 42 Demography provides enrollment projections for Wake County and Brunswick County. <br /> 43 <br /> 44 Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director, reviewed the background information for the item and <br /> 45 introduced Nathan Dollar of Carolina Demography. <br /> 46 Nathan Dollar made the following presentation: <br /> 47 <br /> 48 <br />