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48 <br /> Section II <br /> C. Student Membership Projections <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory <br /> Committee (SAPFOTAC)and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. <br /> Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the <br /> BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition — The result of the average of the five student projection models <br /> represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, <br /> Middle, and High) for each school district (Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> and Orange County School District). <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section <br /> (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See <br /> Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease <br /> and negative growth rate for all three school levels in Chapel Hill-Carrboro City <br /> Schools in the 10-year projection period. Orange County Schools (OCS)projections <br /> show a relatively flat rate of growth at Elementary level, with an overall increase of <br /> only 19 students in the 10-year projection period. At the Middle and High School <br /> levels, OCS projections show a negative growth rate. Attachment II.C.3 and <br /> Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year percent growth and projected level of service <br /> (LOS). The projection models were updated using current (November 15, 2024) <br /> memberships. Ten years of student membership were projected thereafter. <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> Elementary <br /> The previous year (2023-24) projections for November 2024 at this level were overestimated by <br /> 82 students. The actual membership decreased by 57 students. Over the past ten years, this level <br /> has experienced a decrease in nine out of ten school years, including this year. Growth rates <br /> during the past ten years have ranged from-8.76%to +1.20%. Capacity was decreased by 349 <br /> 31 <br />