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43 <br /> Section II <br /> Attachment ILB.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis(2023-24) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed ranging from 25 students below to 49 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 6 students above the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and <br /> November 14, 2023. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 56 students below to 62 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 6 students below the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 82 students between November 15, 2022 and <br /> November 14, 2023. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were low, ranging from 36 students to 114 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 60 students below actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 24 students between November 15, 2022 and <br /> November 14, 2023. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 130 students below to <br /> 59 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 60 students <br /> below the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 140 students, which is the sum of -82 at <br /> Elementary, -82 at Middle, and +24 at High. <br /> 26 <br />