Agenda 06-03-2025; 8-j - Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance – Approval and Certification of 2025 Report

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13 The SAPFOTAC also monitors projects that have not reached the stage of the development process when CAPS are issued. Therefore, student estimates are not yet available. The following is a list of projects for which rezoning has been approved: Residential Project Jurisdiction Expected Number of Units St Paul Village Chapel Hill 350 Link Apartments at 101 E Rosemary Chapel Hill 150 Longleaf Trace Chapel Hill 42-60 South Creek(Phase 3) Chapel Hill 56-76 Single-Family 249-386 Multi-Family Gateway/Meridian (Phase 2 Chapel Hill 72 Barbee Chapel Apartments Chapel Hill 262-350 School Renovation and Expansion The Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) student projections illustrate when the adopted level of service capacities are forecasted to be met and/or exceeded in anticipation of Capital Improvement Plan (CIP)planning and the construction of a new school. Both school districts continue planning efforts to renovate and expand existing facilities to address school capacity needs in a more feasible way. Additional capacity resulting from school renovations and expansions will be added to the projection models in stages, once funding is approved, versus the addition of greater capacity when a new school is constructed and completed. The renovation and expansion to existing facilities may delay construction of new schools further into the future, depending on how and how much capacity is added to the system. Decisions on the timing of reconstruction (i.e. capacity additions)funding would be directly linked to the SAPFO model at the appropriate time. 2023 Woolpert Facilities Capital Needs Assessment, Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) Student Projections, Future Student Projection Methodology, and Student Generation Rates In 2023, Orange County contracted with Woolpert, Inc. to conduct a Facilities Capital Needs Assessment on all schools within both districts. Part of the assessment included calculating capacity at each school. At the Elementary level, two capacity calculations were completed: one that excluded space used by Pre-K programs and one that did not account for Pre-K usage. The capacity numbers reported and used in the 2025 SAPFOTAC Report take space allocations for Pre-K students into account. Also in 2023, each school district contracted with NC State's Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd)to complete a"Land Use Study" and student membership projections. OREd's projection model includes a forecasting component whereas the SAPFO model is mathematically based using historical data and accepted projection methodologies. In December 2024, the Board of County Commissioners authorized notification to the parties of the SAPFO MOU that the student projection methodology will be changed to either the one employed by (OREd) or Carolina Demography. The SAPFO partners were invited to comment on this update and the Board of Commissioners is expected to make a final decision in April 2025 on which methodology is used moving forward. Either projection methodology is expected to use a student generation rate determined by the projection professionals It is anticipated the SAPFOTAC will evaluate the student generation rates used by the selected professionals for inclusion into the CAPS (Certificate of Adequate Public Schools)process. viii