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Attaclunent ILB.1 <br />STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PR®JECTI®N (page 10 of 10) <br />School District: <br />Year/Date Issued: <br />Year/Date Based: <br />Years Projected: <br />A. Projection Type: <br />1. Projection <br />Description/ <br />Characteristics: <br />Chapel Hill-Carrboro •„_ <br />May I I, 2004 <br />November 15, 2003-2004 <br />2005-2014 <br />10 Year Cohort <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br />the previous 10 years for each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />projected membership by school level. An assumed kindergarten membership <br />is based on birth records and/or historical growth rates. <br />Z. Projection For°mula: ~_ "-~ <br />K„=K„_,+(K„_~' 0.01) a=(~G„/g„_,)/10 b=g„_,(a) <br />,.=io <br />K=Kindergarten membership a=Given school yem, C=Given grade's membership <br />(other than Kindergarten), g=Previous grade's membership, a=Average advancement <br />rate, b=Projected membership <br />3. Projection Assumes a 1% annual growth rate for the kindergarten grade level. <br />Assumptions: Assmnes the same percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br />to the next level each year. <br />4. Avel"age AIlIlUaI 2.53% Nofe: This is an average annual rate overall school levels over ten years. <br />Growth Rate: ~ ,_ <br />5. Attachments: ,„ " <br />6. Projection Performed: By: Scroggs, Benedict, Dean Date: 3/4/2004 <br />7. ProjectioIl Reviewed: By: Date: <br />8. Projection Certified: <br />9. Comments: <br />26 <br />