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Attaclunent ILB.1 <br />S'TITDENT MElVIBERSIIIP PIt®JEC'I'I®N (page 9 of 10) <br />School District: <br />Year/Date Issued: <br />Year/Date Based: <br />Years Projected: <br />A. Projection Type: <br />I. Projection <br />Description( <br />Chapel Hill-Canboro ~_ <br />May 11, 2004 <br />November 15, 2003-2004 <br />2005-2014 <br />5 Year Cohort <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br />the previous 5 years for' each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />Characteristics: projected membership by school level. An assumed kindergarten memhership <br />is based on birth records and/or historical growth rates.. <br />2. Projection Formula: "-' <br />K,.=K,~-r+~K,~-i`k0,01) a=~~~,~/g,.-,)/5 G=g,.-r(a) <br />,~=s <br />K=Kindergarten nrenrbership n=Given school yem`, C--Given grade's membership <br />(other thmr Kindergarten), g=Previous grade's membership, a=Average arh+mrcement <br />rate, 6=Projected mentbersl:ip <br />3. Projection Asswnes a 1% animal growth rate for the kindergarten grade level. <br />Assumptions: Assumes the same percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br />to the next level each year. _ _ <br />4. Avet"age Atlnllai 2.65% Note: This is an average annual rate overall school levels over ten years. <br />Growth Rate: ..~_ <br />5. Attachments: ,~ <br />6. Projection Performed: By: Scroggs, Benedict, Dean Date: 3/4/2004 <br />7. Projection Reviewed: By: Date: <br />8. Projection Certified: <br />9. Comments: ._ <br />25 <br />