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Attaclunent ILB.1 <br />STiJD6JNT MEMBI+RSIEIIII' I'R®,T~CTI®N (page 8 of 10) <br />School District: <br />Year/Date Issued: <br />Year/Date Based: <br />Years Projected: <br />A. Projection Type: <br />1. Pr°ojection <br />Description/ <br />Characteristics: <br />Chapel Hill-Carrboro <br />May 11, 2004 <br />November 15, 2003-2004 <br />2005-2014 <br />3 Year Cohort <br />Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br />the previous 3 years for each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />school level. An <br />is based on birth records and/or historical growth rates. <br />2. Projection Fm°mula: K = K _ -f- (K _ ~'~ 0..01) a = (~ G l ) l.3 b = (a) <br />r. r. i ,. r ,~ g,.-r gr.-r <br /> n=3 <br /> K=h'indergmlen membership, n=Given s'c/rool year, G=Given grade's membership _ <br /> (other tkmr Kindergarten), g=Previous grade's membership, a=Average advancement <br /> rate, b=Projected ntenrbership <br />3. Projection Assumes a 1% annual growth rate for the Indergarten grade level. <br />Assumptions: Assumes the sarne percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br /> to the next level each year. <br />4. Average Annual 1.80% Note: This is an average annual rate over all school levels over fen years. <br />T <br />Growth Rate: <br />5. Attachments: <br />6. Projection Performed: By: Scroggs, Benedict, Deazi Date: 3!4/2004 <br />7. Projection Reviewed: By~ ~~ Date: <br />8. Projection Certified: _ <br />9. Comments: <br />24 <br />