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Attaclunent ILB.I <br />STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTION (Page 5 of 10) <br />School District: Orange County <br />Year/Date Issued: May 11, 2004 _ <br />Year/Date Based: NovemUer 15, 2003-2004 <br />Years Projected: 2005-2014 ~„~ - <br />A. Projectiou Type: 10 Yeaz Cohort <br />1. Projection Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br />Description/ the previous 10 years for each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate _ <br />Characteristics: projected membership Uy school level. An assumed kindergarten membership <br /> is based on Uirth records and/or historical growth rates. ~ti <br />2. Pro ection Formula: <br />.1 "-~ <br />K„ = K,.-~ + (K,.-~ * 0.01) a = (~ ~,~ l S,.-,) / 10 b = g„-i ~a) <br /> ,.=i o <br /> K=Kindergarten membership, n=Given school sear; G=Given gr'ade's membership <br /> _ <br />(other than Kindergarten), g=Previous grade's nten=bership, a=tlverage advaicemertt <br /> rate 6=Projected membership <br />3. Projection Assumes a 1% annual growth rate for the kindergazten grade level. <br />Assumptious: Assumes the same percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br /> to the next level each year. <br />4. Average Annual 0.42% _ Note: This is an average annual rate overall school levels over ten years. <br />Growth Rate: <br />5. Attachments: <br />6. Projection Performed: By: Scroggs, Benedict, Dean Date: 3/4/2004 <br />7. Projection Reviewed: By: Date: <br />8. Projection Certified: <br />9. Comments: ,~.,~ <br />21 <br />