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Attaclunent II B.1 <br />STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTI®N (page 4 of 10) <br />School District: Orange County _ _ <br />Year/Date Issued: May 11, 2004 <br />Year/Date Based: November 15, 2003-2004 <br />Years Projected: 2005-2014 ~ . <br />A. Projection Type: S Yeaz' Cohort ~ _ <br />1. Projection Mathematical formula that computes the average advancement rate over <br />Description/ the previous 5 years for each grade level and then uses each rate to calculate <br />Characteristics: projected membership by school level. An assumed kindergarten membership <br /> is based on birth records and/or historical growth rates. ~_ <br />2. Projection Formula: "-' <br />K,. = K,.-~ + ~K,~-r "~ 0..01) a = ~~ G„ / g„-r) / 5 b = g„-r Ca) <br /> ,~=s _ _ <br /> K=Ki»dw°garten nrembersbip, +r=Given sd:ool year, G=Giver: grade's membership <br /> (other than Kindergarten) g=Previous gr nde's membership, a=Average advancen:era <br /> rate, b=Projected menrbersl:ip <br />3. Projection Assumes a 1% amiual growth rate for the IcindergarCen grade level. <br />Assumptions: Assumes the sazne percentage of students in each grade level graduate <br /> to the next level each year. <br />4. Average Annual 0.36°/o Note. This is an average annual rate over all school levels over (en years. <br />Growth Rate: <br />5. Attachments: <br />6. Projection Performed: By: Scroggs, Benedict, Dean Date: 3/4/2004 <br />7. Projection Reviewed: By: Date: <br />8. Projection Certified: <br />9. Comments: <br />20 <br />