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Attaclmient II,B.1 <br />STUDENT MEMBERSIIIP PROJECTION (page 2 of 10) <br />School District: <br />Year/Date Issued: <br />Year/Date Based: <br />Years Projected: <br />A. Projection Type <br />1. Projection <br />Description/ <br />Characteristics: <br />Orange Cowrty <br />12/1 I /2003 <br />November 15, 2003-2004 <br />2005-2014 <br />OCP Linear Wave <br />Mathematical Linear with percent variation aznong school levels <br />Reflecting progressing waves of memberslvp ~_ <br />2. Projection Formula: BYM + (BYI + 5(n)) = EYM EYM x %SL = EYM/SL <br />(BYM ° Base},ear god month membership BYI = yem satdera membership increment <br />base (150), EYd4 =Ensuing},ear membership n =Projection 3'ear, % SL = % of total _ <br />membership perschaol level (i. e., elementar}~, middle, high), E3'd~/SL = Ensuing year <br />member by school level <br />3. P~°ojection Base yeaz- growth reflects 10-yeaz average. <br />Assumptions: Increase in BYI of 5 reflects increases in housing growth. <br />Reflects growth potential. <br />4. Average Annual 2.65% ._ <br />Growth Rate: ASGR = (2014 PM - 2004 AM)/10 =.172.5 (ASGR =Annual Student Grarnth Rate; <br />P4T =Projected tl4embership, Ald = Actunl Membership) <br />5. Attachments: a) Projections (includes: Total, Elementary, Middle, and High) _ <br />b) School Level <br />6. Projection Performed: By: David Meaux Date: 12/11/2003 <br />7. Projection Reviewed: By: ~ Date: <br />8. Projection Certified: , <br />9. Comments: _ <br />18 <br />G:\CompreUensive Planning Div\kparker\OCprojeaion-OCSD_I 1_15_2003 03/29/04 <br />