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1 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br /> ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT <br /> Meeting Date: April 15, 2025 <br /> Action Agenda <br /> Item No. 6-a <br /> SUBJECT: Change in Student Projection Methodology to be Used in Future Annual <br /> SAPFOTAC Reports <br /> DEPARTMENT: County Manager <br /> ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br /> Attachment 1 . Carolina Demography Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 <br /> Presentation <br /> PURPOSE: To receive a presentation from staff from Carolina Demography and authorize staff <br /> to change the student projection methodology of future annual School Adequate Public Facilities <br /> Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) reports to a methodology employed by <br /> Carolina Demography. <br /> BACKGROUND: Over the past two (2) years, the SAPFOTAC, a technical advisory committee <br /> representing the County, the Towns of Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill-Carrboro <br /> City Schools and Orange County Schools, have discussed making improvements to the School <br /> Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection, based on commonly <br /> identified limitations of the process. <br /> The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based <br /> primarily on historic enrollment. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in the <br /> past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent with <br /> past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large development <br /> that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in classrooms, and <br /> even then, a three-, five-, or ten-year average would only begin reflecting those increases over <br /> time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options outside of a traditional <br /> public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space needs in a single year rather <br /> than over time. <br /> At the December 10, 2024 Business meeting, the Board of Commissioners authorized staff to <br /> provide notice to the parties of the SAPFO Memoranda of Understanding (MOU) that the student <br /> projection methodology will be changed to be one employed by the Operational Research and <br /> Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography. In accordance with the SAPFO <br /> Memoranda of Understanding, a letter was sent to the SAPFO partners in January inviting <br /> comment on the proposed change. No comments were received. <br /> On March 16, 2025, the SAPFOTAC held its annual meeting, and received presentations from <br /> both consultants. The six (6) entities voted unanimously to recommend Carolina Demography to <br />