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50 <br /> Section II <br /> Attachment II.13.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2024-25) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> School Membership 2024-2025 School Year (November 15, 2024) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mostly low, ranging from 144 students below to 20 students above <br /> actual membership. On average, the projections were 82 students below the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 57 students between November 15, 2023 and <br /> November 15, 2024. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 12 students below to 41 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 13 students above the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 60 students between November 15, 2023 and <br /> November 15, 2024. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were low, ranging from 5 students to 89 students below actual membership. <br /> On average, the projections were 32 students below actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 16 students between November 15, 2023 and <br /> November 15, 2024. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were mostly low, ranging from 173 students <br /> below to 42 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 101 <br /> students below the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 133 students, which is the sum of-57 at <br /> Elementary, -60 at Middle, and -16 at High. <br /> 30 <br />