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10 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2024-2025 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2024-2025 in that given year.The second column for <br /> each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low <br /> compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. <br /> Year Projection Made for 2024-2025 Membership <br /> Actual 2024 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 2994 3378 H384 2962 L32 2948 L46 3044 H50 3011 H17 <br /> Middle 1582 1732 H150 1593 Hll 1599 H17 1578 L4 1572 L10 <br /> High 2369 2401 H32 2293 L76 2438 H164 2420 H51 2377 H8 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change*)............Pg. 37 <br /> *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2024- <br /> Made: 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 <br /> Elementary -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% -0.37% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% 0.10% <br /> Middle -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% -1.24% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% E-�O.E52-%;.High -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% -1.74% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change*)......Pg. 40 <br /> *See additional information in Executive Summary and Report <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 85.0%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative <br /> over the next 10 years (average -0.37%%per year compared to an average of-1.99% <br /> over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10- <br /> year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 88.7%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and remain negative <br /> over the next 10 years (average -1.24% compared to an average of-0.71% over the <br /> past 10 years). <br /> C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year <br /> projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 106.9%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and be negative over <br /> the next 10 years (average -1.74% compared to +0.61% over the past 10 years). <br /> ii <br />