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15 <br /> DRAFT/March 28,2025 <br /> Most of the farmland conversion in Orange County is projected to involve low- <br /> density residential development as opposed to urban, commercial, or industrial <br /> land uses (Figure 4). <br /> Low-density residential development is especially harmful for farming because it <br /> fragments agricultural land, thereby restricting its potential agricultural uses, and <br /> negatively impacts operations of adjacent farms through effects including run- <br /> off and beneficial habitat destruction (Box 1). Low-density residential <br /> development also inflates the prices of adjacent farmland to make acquiring <br /> farmland difficult or impossible for new and beginning farmers. <br /> Low-density residential development also paves the way for further <br /> development (Freedgood, 2020). In North Carolina areas where low-density <br /> residential development is occurring, agricultural land is five times more likely to <br /> be converted to urban and highly developed uses than agricultural land in <br /> areas without it (Freedgood, 2020). Farmers in areas with development pressure <br /> and high land values have been characterized as exhibiting impermanence <br /> syndrome---a shortening of their planning horizon associated with uncertainty <br /> and apprehension about the future (Adelaja et al., 2011 ; Perrin et al., 2020). The <br /> impermanence syndrome, in the context of the opportunity to profit from sale of <br /> farmland, can make farmers reluctant to invest in the farming operation and <br /> can impel them to sell their farmland for development. <br /> Figure 4. Projected conversion of farmland in Orange County to 2040 (Hunter, 2022; American <br /> Farmland Trust, 2022) <br /> Business 14,300 acres <br /> as Usual <br /> of farmland lost <br /> Runaway <br /> Sprawl 19,900 acres <br /> of farmland lost <br /> 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 <br /> Acres converted <br /> Urban and highly developed N Low-density residential <br /> Urban and highly developed(UHD)land use includes commercial,industrial,and moderate-to-high density residential areas. <br /> Low-density residential(LDR)land use includes scattered subdivisions and large-lot housing,which fragment the agricultural land base and limit production. <br /> 13 <br />