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<br /> Slide#7
<br /> Alternatives
<br /> Operational Research and Education Laboratory(OREd)from NC State University
<br /> • Utilizes land-use approvals and future residential development projections
<br /> • Determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation
<br /> rates of future developments based on similar existing neighborhoods
<br /> R1;s
<br /> January 2024 Report C> ld.. e6r911m.m i F.-d!M..h-1ADM 1,2023-21enm11mva
<br /> 2023-24 1 M23-20 1 2024-25 1 2025-26 1 2026-27 2027-28 20M429 1 2029410 1 20303E 1 203142 1 203243 2033a4 awided by aC9.
<br /> Elemsntary Schools(K-5) 3 n Knot `rci`:
<br /> doe d
<br /> Central Elementary 428 291 285 285 290 293 305 316 334 342 347 354
<br /> Efland Cheeks Elementary 455
<br /> Grady Brown Elementary 490 406 402 414 41 B 419 419 417 416 412 414 414
<br /> HIIlsborough Elementary Q.
<br /> 437 437 437 437 437 437 437 437t281
<br /> 43
<br /> New Hope Elementary 526 514 510 522 526 528 544 549 551
<br /> Pathways Elementary 540 312 315 307 305 306 301 292 284 286 284 Capacity Legend
<br /> River Park Elementary 502
<br /> Totals 336E 1 3055 1 3042 1 3039 1 3074 3108 3117 1 3157 1 3164 1 3173 1 3200 1 3211 195
<br /> Middle Schools(6.8)
<br /> a L 5tanback Middle 740 633 639 633 655 644 662 663 670 676 6% 698 100%-105
<br /> Gravelly HIII M"'d. 700 411 406 463 475 50B 525 562 578 593 fit6 627
<br /> Orange Middle 726 535 530 647 553 541 544 540 642 536 IN34638 106%
<br /> Totals 1 2166 1 1579 1575 1643 1684 1694 1731 1765 1790 1805 1845 1863
<br /> High Schools(9-12)
<br /> Cedar Ridge High 1500 1117 1138 1172 1143 1157 1174 1173 1220 1250 1266 1312
<br /> Orange High 13909 1222 1239 1180 1191 1253 1265 1295 1334 1365 1377 7425
<br /> Partnership Academy 40 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 1 -dh a.d
<br /> Totals 2939 2382 1 2419 2394 2376 2452 2401 2510 2596 2657 2684 2779 1
<br /> 09aEd..I.Lalwratary
<br /> na I rTre P.,::i n
<br /> I
<br /> re...andrduaati.n
<br /> System Total 9466 7018 1 7036 7076 7133 7253 7328 7432 7550 76M 7730 7854 Norm gown sere Nmremat
<br /> Slide #8
<br /> Alternatives
<br /> Carolina Demography from UNC-Chapel Hill
<br /> • Starts with grade progression formula that emphasizes most recent years
<br /> • Integrates data on birth rates,the number and type of building permits issued, migration, losses to charter
<br /> schools and private schools
<br /> Sahle 8.Fioal{i'CP55 EaraIIm.os Pr9jerrioa5 by Grade Wake County Example
<br /> Moth 2dDM
<br /> Grad• ..++ 201E 'M 203E 20M 797] - 2019 - -11 -11 -1 Chap.202}2M1
<br /> R 10,96.E ll.eta ]1.716 ...... .2,14E I2,113 I". 12.242 I2.- 12.381 12995 12.50T 1,45E
<br /> 1 I1,a- 11.41. 12,148 12,149 11.1 11.96a 12.869 12,4" 12,111 12.781 12,81s 11,906 1,402
<br /> 11,2W 12,008 II,SaT 12,3a2 t2,.7. I2,TSS 12,840 12,81T 1Zeaa 12,979 13,OJ3 13,108 I,100
<br /> 1 I1,99fi 11.4T6 12,MI 11,.71 11.- 13.95T 12.31a 12,930 12.907 12,]a2 13.089 13.155 1.950
<br /> 11,26p 11.T92 11,ei72 12,2s3 E,8]6 12:s, 11,.2s 12,.7 13,107 13,084 12,"T O.W 1,4a.
<br /> 5 11,T66 11.i01 I1.9T6 11,812 r2,445 12,WI 12.917 12.824 12.694 13.313 13.289 13.161 I,45T
<br /> 6 I1,TTe 11,TO] 1L,s0a 1l,17 11,TOB 12,]3] 11,912 12,T91 I1,.7 12,a58 13,232 1],2se I,ss
<br /> 12,173 12.012 I1,T85 11.674 11,047 IE,Ta9 12.420 11.99] 12,89s 12.892 12,731 13,:1 1.342
<br /> 2,125 12.605 2,]]3 a,111 442
<br /> 9 14,812 14.91E N.57T 14,2s0 14,063 13.-2 14.2sa 11.09E 19.aIs t4.]71 ].4]1 15,43a 46a
<br /> l0 IJ,lA9 13.176 13.696 1],4W 13,101 U.. 12.11- 13.W 12,927 U.- 13.213 14.191 615
<br /> 14 12,a. 11,197 12.819 1],021 U.751 12.461 12.298 12.183 12.4a9 12.297 12.9a4 12.569 �ZB
<br /> 12 12,Ora 42,I 11,600 12,263 12,663 11,]02 12,024 11.364 11,1" 12,029 11,56] 12,508 61
<br /> TwY IM.412 159.1195®160,]82 [a 1.230 Ia I,899 162.8.7a 1a4,]62 166,254 IW.2T1 170.2 1T2.]ST
<br /> •Choate -651 1.5fLM1 980 �7 898 869 931 I.- 1,892 2.019 1.- 2.12E
<br /> '.Chap -0,;% 1.M 0.M ,M 0.54E 0.69E 0,0%. 1.29E 1.29E 1.M 1.29E
<br /> S.-tir 1n 2026,coro11a1eats ere forecast to riu steadily.lerpely due to thr f ecasted eau -Ea both
<br /> cohorts.and because most ofphe cLertrrs projected to impart rnr911-1 wdl largely be at fall capacuy by l+
<br /> ORANGE COUNTY
<br /> 8 NORTH CAROLINA
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