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10 <br /> The original SAPFO projection methodology relies on capacity calculations that do not take into <br /> consideration the existence of Pre-Kindergarten classrooms and the lower capacities for some <br /> specialized classroom functions such as exceptional children classrooms. When Woolpert, Inc. <br /> completed Long Range (School) Facilities Optimization Plan, those deficiencies were corrected. <br /> On the student projection part of the analysis, the current SAPFO projections use a series of five <br /> different mathematical formulas that all rely on history to predict future growth. Attachment 1 <br /> describes each of those formulas. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in <br /> the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent <br /> with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large <br /> development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in <br /> classrooms, and even then, a three, five, or ten year average would only begin reflecting those <br /> increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options <br /> outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space <br /> needs in a single year rather than over time. <br /> Overthe pastyear,the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTAC discussed making <br /> improvements to the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment <br /> projection and capacity determination process. The Committee is recommending a change <br /> to the projection methodology consistent with the terms of the MOU. <br /> The County has already worked with the Operational Research and Education Laboratory <br /> (OREd)from NC State University and Woolpert, Inc. consultants respectively to review a different <br /> projection methodology and to update school capacity. The OREd projection model, described <br /> in Attachment 2, utilizes land-use and future residential development projections directly in <br /> its ten-year enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of specific <br /> neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation rates of future developments based on <br /> similar existing neighborhoods. This methodology increases the predictive nature of the <br /> projections as they are based on approved development and student generation rates rather <br /> than historic growth rates. <br /> Following the suggestion of Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools staff, the County has also <br /> conferred with Carolina Demography from UNC-Chapel Hill about its student projection <br /> methodology that was recently used in Wake County Schools. The methodology and <br /> assumptions are described in Attachment 3 which is an excerpt from the Wake County <br /> student projection analysis. The Carolina Demography methodology uses a variety of factors <br /> including birth rates, the number and type of building permits issued, migration, population <br /> structure and change, and losses to charter schools and private schools. <br /> Staff is recommending that the Board authorize staff to provide notice to the parties to the <br /> MOU that the existing student projection methodology will be replaced by either the OREd or <br /> Carolina Demography projection methodology and to invite comment from the parties. The <br /> Board of Commissioners would make a final decision on which methodology is used in April <br /> of 2025. <br /> Travis Myren, County Manager, made the following presentation: <br />