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<br /> 1 Slide #7
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<br /> Alternatives
<br /> — Operational Research and Education Laboratory(OREd)from NC State University
<br /> Utilizes land-use approvals and future residential development projections
<br /> Determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation
<br /> rates of future developments based on similar existing neighborhoods
<br /> R;
<br /> January 2024 Report c w9I Ys Enlminnn ro.�lw e1�De t wr4 rM�.
<br /> 20 3.21 3-24 2654 I 202638 20 6-21 T D!• 30 203631 631-35 503533 563]-Sl p.. M nr5
<br /> E1am9mary UbooF4(K-5)
<br /> C-iel El"Or"ry 428 291 ---265 285 290 293 305 316 334 342 347 354
<br /> en.,,,,Caaaks EWm-.., 451
<br /> Grady 8—Elemw6ary 490 1 406 402414 418 419 415 417 416 412 414 414
<br /> HIIII19r9ugh Ek—.,Aary 4v 437 437 am 417 437 437
<br /> Ne,Hope Elemeawy526 627 S is _ 510 - 522 528 578 544 618 331--
<br /> PaBt,8p4 Ebm611Gry 548 312 315 307 305 30B 301 292 284 266 281 204 1 Capeclty Legend
<br /> Rlvw Park Elementary 592_
<br /> Totals 3381 3055 NM2- 3035 3074 7708 3117 3157 1 3154 1 3173 132041 3271 <96°!0
<br /> Middle SCtloola(6.8) 1 95%-100"!a
<br /> A L Stanback L11ddN 740 633539 633 655 644 662 663 670 676 696 6918
<br /> Gravely Hill 700 411 406 463 _ 476 - 6q0 624 682 $76 693 616 627
<br /> orai LBddM 725 535 I 630 547 662 641 644 640 _. 542. .. 636 - 634.
<br /> Totals 2746 7519 1515 1649 IM4 1684 1731 1785 1790 1606 1845 1863
<br /> High 9.h-1.(96121 _
<br /> CA1dar Ridge High 1500 1117 � 6138 1172 1143 1157 _ 1174 1173 _ 1220 1250 1266 1312
<br /> Or"High 1398 1222 _ 1279 1180 1191 1253 1265 1295 1334 1365 1377
<br /> Parinwsi Academy i 42 42 _.J 42 42 42
<br /> Totals 2939 1 2317 1 2415 2394 2378 2452 7481 2510 2588 7557 Z5l4 7774 '�. z41or1i.e
<br /> f i11r�,.e.rn
<br /> aty4Mm TOW 5488 7018 7035 7076 7133 7257 7321 7432 7560 7838 7730 7854 1ron54..ral;.51x9 u9«.uy
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<br /> 5 Slide #8
<br /> Alternatives
<br /> — Carolina Demography from UNC-Chapel Hill
<br /> Starts with grade progression formula that emphasizes most recent years
<br /> Integrates data on birth rates,the number and type of building permits issued, migration, losses to charter
<br /> schools and private schools
<br /> Wake County Example
<br /> fable S.F:6al li'CP55 Ear99®am Pr6jecti.99s by Grade
<br /> if 1h a AD.N
<br /> Gam. 292: 2023 2024 2025 M. 3017 2023 2029 2030 .11 203a b33 Caaaa—.11
<br /> K IO,OW 11.053 11,716 11.578 12.III 12,113 11.092 .2.262 11.— 12.384 12.145 12..T 1.450
<br /> 1 IL624 81.416 Ia.HS Ia.1M 11,198 17,565 1a.5s9 ]2,134 12,717 MTbl 12,945 12,Deb 1..92
<br /> 14,261 la.Dae D. 12,363 12.5!6 11231 19.349 12.817 12,413 12.979 13,043 13.1[M 4,401
<br /> 3 MI90 t1.476 13.091 II.677 12.457 12.457 12.31D 12.030 12.907 12.7112 11060 13.135 1.139
<br /> I 11.399 11.TBT 11.653 12,Tee 11.138 12,621 12.19 12,IIT 13.111 11.1 12,967 13,2" 1.436
<br /> 5 11,Tfi6 11,7114 II,9T5 11,312 12,145 13,M1 12,111 12,124 12,b14 13,393 13,99 13,161 I,IST
<br /> 11,116 Il,TOT It.598 11,181 41,101 /1,119 11,912 12,791 12.191 12,131 12,92 13.213
<br /> 7 12,913 IIAW Il,711 11,674 11,947 11,Till 12,120 11,993 12.x45 12,892 12,151 11,JtN k,:M1
<br /> 1 12,b1T 12,400 12,221 11,— /1,— 12,125 11,DSD 12,605 12,In .,.T. ]Y,— 12.011 443
<br /> 9 14.b.*" 1d,054 14,.77 14,241 14.,015 19,032 14,258 14,361 14,410 14,171 15,431 15,439 1-
<br /> 10 IJ,335 1
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<br /> ,676 1a,818 41J 3,101 12,19 1a,806 13,107 12,121 a,826 13,N. 118
<br /> 11 12.628 W.197 12.314 13.021 62.151 12.483 12,290 12.183 12.— 12,201 12,061 12.569 -62tl
<br /> 13 12,012 12.571 12.809 12.263 22.113 13,JB2 12.024 11.91 11.753 12.09 11,863 12.506 63
<br /> iw4 I.IIT 109.D9b 183.302 let.239 111,3889 1..139 164.362 180,94 815,273 190.238 Sia.351
<br /> Y Coup -354 1,581 ASD �/3 844 860 931 1_592 1.492 2,ct0 1.961 2.121
<br /> %ZI,_ -0.4% I'M 0.396 -0.096 0.694 O.4% I.6F 0.91 1.21.. 1.29E 1.2% 1.2%
<br /> S91rtiag 11 2026.—1.1—its—forecast to—5tcaddy.largely d—to for f---d lncrea-In birth
<br /> cW—.—d because mass offbe cbaaer5 p-jaded w-pati ellrollme9l will largely be at f1d1 capacity by
<br /> 11189. 1
<br /> ORANGE COUNTY
<br /> 8 NORTH CAROLINA
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