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10 <br /> 1 The original SAPFO projection methodology relies on capacity calculations that do not take into <br /> 2 consideration the existence of Pre-Kindergarten classrooms and the lower capacities for some <br /> 3 specialized classroom functions such as exceptional children classrooms. When Woolpert, Inc. <br /> 4 completed Long Range (School) Facilities Optimization Plan, those deficiencies were corrected. <br /> 5 <br /> 6 On the student projection part of the analysis, the current SAPFO projections use a series of <br /> 7 five different mathematical formulas that all rely on history to predict future growth. Attachment <br /> 8 1 describes each of those formulas. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in <br /> 9 the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is <br /> 10 inconsistent with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very <br /> 11 large development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start <br /> 12 presenting in classrooms, and even then, a three, five, or ten year average would only begin <br /> 13 reflecting those increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in <br /> 14 educational options outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student <br /> 15 growth and space needs in a single year rather than over time. <br /> 16 <br /> 17 Over the past year, the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTAC discussed <br /> 18 making improvements to the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) <br /> 19 enrollment projection and capacity determination process. The Committee is <br /> 20 recommending a change to the projection methodology consistent with the terms of the <br /> 21 MOU. <br /> 22 <br /> 23 The County has already worked with the Operational Research and Education Laboratory <br /> 24 (OREd) from NC State University and Woolpert, Inc. consultants respectively to review a <br /> 25 different projection methodology and to update school capacity. The OREd projection model, <br /> 26 described in Attachment 2, utilizes land-use and future residential development projections <br /> 27 directly in its ten-year enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of <br /> 28 specific neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation rates of future developments <br /> 29 based on similar existing neighborhoods. This methodology increases the predictive nature <br /> 30 of the projections as they are based on approved development and student generation <br /> 31 rates rather than historic growth rates. <br /> 32 <br /> 33 Following the suggestion of Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools staff, the County has also <br /> 34 conferred with Carolina Demography from UNC-Chapel Hill about its student projection <br /> 35 methodology that was recently used in Wake County Schools. The methodology and <br /> 36 assumptions are described in Attachment 3 which is an excerpt from the Wake County <br /> 37 student projection analysis. The Carolina Demography methodology uses a variety of <br /> 38 factors including birth rates, the number and type of building permits issued, migration, <br /> 39 population structure and change, and losses to charter schools and private schools. <br /> 40 <br /> 41 Staff is recommending that the Board authorize staff to provide notice to the parties to the <br /> 42 MOU that the existing student projection methodology will be replaced by either the OREd <br /> 43 or Carolina Demography projection methodology and to invite comment from the parties. <br /> 44 The Board of Commissioners would make a final decision on which methodology is used in <br /> 45 April of 2025. <br /> 46 <br /> 47 Travis Myren, County Manager, made the following presentation: <br /> 48 <br /> 49 <br />