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Agenda - 12-10-2024; 6-a - Authorize Notification Regarding Potential Change in Student Projection Methodology Used by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee
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Agenda - 12-10-2024; 6-a - Authorize Notification Regarding Potential Change in Student Projection Methodology Used by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee
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BOCC
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12/10/2024
Meeting Type
Business
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Agenda
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6-a
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25 <br /> Concerns/Unknowns <br /> Lingering questions about future years include: <br /> • How will changes in decision making for charter schools,and new laws expanding vouchers for private <br /> schools impact enrollment? <br /> • How many missing students will return to school?io <br /> • How will inflation and decreases in home sales impact people's schooling decisions? <br /> • How much will school choices—e.g. home schooling—made during the pandemic persist into the <br /> future? And for how long? <br /> • How well will charter applications capture true build out? <br /> In any year, there are challenges in making projections, but the last few years have been particularly chal- <br /> lenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very hard to predict the response coming out of the pandemic <br /> during a period of inflation at levels we have not seen for decades,and we may see continued flux well into <br /> the 2024-25 school year and beyond. <br /> 10"Missing"refers to the significantly reduced enrollments in WCPSS that are not fully accounted for by increases in home schools, <br /> charter schools,and private schools. In Wake County,as in statewide,the decrease in public school enrollments was not fully offset <br /> by increased enrollments in other school systems. While some of this was concentrated in the earliest grades(Kindergarten),these <br /> enrollment declines do not account for the entirety of the shift. <br /> 21 <br />
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