Agenda - 12-10-2024; 6-a - Authorize Notification Regarding Potential Change in Student Projection Methodology Used by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee

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2 the past, it would not quickly reflect significant policy changes or development that is inconsistent with past growth trends. For example, the existing models would not pick up a very large development that generates a high quantity of students until those students start presenting in classrooms, and even then, a three, five, or ten year average would only begin reflecting those increases over time. Similarly, a significant policy change like growth in educational options outside of a traditional public school setting may reduce projected student growth and space needs in a single year rather than over time. Over the past year, the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTAC discussed making improvements to the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection and capacity determination process. The Committee is recommending a change to the projection methodology consistent with the terms of the MOU. The County has already worked with the Operational Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) from NC State University and Woolpert, Inc. consultants respectively to review a different projection methodology and to update school capacity. The OREd projection model, described in Attachment 2, utilizes land-use and future residential development projections directly in its ten-year enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and makes estimates of generation rates of future developments based on similar existing neighborhoods. This methodology increases the predictive nature of the projections as they are based on approved development and student generation rates rather than historic growth rates. Following the suggestion of Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools staff, the County has also conferred with Carolina Demography from UNC-Chapel Hill about its student projection methodology that was recently used in Wake County Schools. The methodology and assumptions are described in Attachment 3 which is an excerpt from the Wake County student projection analysis. The Carolina Demography methodology uses a variety of factors including birth rates, the number and type of building permits issued, migration, population structure and change, and losses to charter schools and private schools. Staff is recommending that the Board authorize staff to provide notice to the parties to the MOU that the existing student projection methodology will be replaced by either the OREd or Carolina Demography projection methodology and to invite comment from the parties. The Board of Commissioners would make a final decision on which methodology is used in April of 2025. FINANCIAL IMPACT: The County would be required to fund a contract with the third-party consultant. The cost of the OREd contract was $35,000 for both the land use study and student projections. The cost of a report from Carolina Demography would be approximately the same cost. ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PLAN: This item supports: • GOAL 5: PUBLIC EDUCATION/LEARNING COMMUNITY OBJECTIVE 4. Improve learning environments by investing in facilities over a 10-year period that address repair, renovation, and educational adequacy needs. OBJECTIVE 5. Invest in and implement a plan that supports schools operational and facility funding needs.