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1 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br /> ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT <br /> Meeting Date: December 10, 2024 <br /> Action Agenda <br /> Item No. 6-a <br /> SUBJECT: Authorize Notification Regarding Potential Change in Student Projection <br /> Methodology Used by the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance <br /> Technical Advisory Committee <br /> DEPARTMENT: County Manager <br /> ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br /> 1) SAPFO Student Project Formulas Travis Myren, County Manager, 919- <br /> 2) OREd Student Projection 245-2308 <br /> Presentation <br /> 3) Wake County Student Projection <br /> Excerpt from Wake County Report <br /> PURPOSE: To authorize staff to provide notice to the parties of the Student Adequate Public <br /> Facilities Ordinance Memorandum of Understanding (SAPFO MOU) that the student projection <br /> methodology will be changed to either the one employed by the Operational Research and <br /> Education Laboratory (OREd) or Carolina Demography and invite comment from the parties. The <br /> Board of Commissioners will make a final decision on which methodology is used moving forward <br /> in April 2025. <br /> BACKGROUND: Each year, a staff committee comprised of representatives from the County, <br /> the Towns of Chapel Hill and Carborro, Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools, and Orange County <br /> Schools prepares and transmits a report on student growth projections. This committee is known <br /> as the Schools Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance Technical Advisory Committee <br /> (SAPFOTAC). The projections are compared to school capacity in an effort to predict when new <br /> school facilities might be needed. If the projections indicate a need for more school capacity, the <br /> County may plan to add capacity through the County's ten year Capital Investment Plan. <br /> The MOU contains a provision that authorizes the Board of Commissioners to change student <br /> projection methodology. The MOU requires the County to notifiy the other parties of a change to <br /> the methodology no later than February 1. <br /> The original SAPFO projection methodology relies on capacity calculations that do not take into <br /> consideration the existence of Pre-Kindergarten classrooms and the lower capacities for some <br /> specialized classroom functions such as exceptional children classrooms. When Woolpert, Inc. <br /> completed Long Range (School) Facilities Optimization Plan, those deficiencies were corrected. <br /> On the student projection part of the analysis, the current SAPFO projections use a series of five <br /> different mathematical formulas that all rely on history to predict future growth. Attachment 1 <br /> describes each of those formulas. While this methodology has accurately measured growth in <br />