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30 <br /> STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS n <br /> O <br /> Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection �((c*t')*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth ti <br /> CHCCS) y=projected population;c=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BYI+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects t0-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearstudent membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o u increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; IDSL=/o of total increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> SYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10•year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=yearstudent membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school o c decrease in BY1 of 15 until school year 2010-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year; /DSL=/o of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints <br /> member by school level <br /> IZIZ <br /> Kn k n.,+(kn.,*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average nT1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(£ G„I g,j)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate forthe <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same "r <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n_,(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year lz <br /> andfor historical growth rates membershi (other than kindergarten);9=previousgrade's membershiP:a=avera e ~ <br /> 1 <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> C <br /> Kn=kn-,+(km,*0.01) <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(£ Gn!gn.1)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n,,(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year y <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> b <br /> Kn=kn.1+(kn,, 0.01) A <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(E G <br /> n gro, <br /> ! )110 Assumes a I%annual growth rate for the <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n_10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed bldg n-,(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> andlar historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ► <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br />