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22 <br /> ratio was used to place greater weight on more recent years with changing demographics and was calculated <br /> as: <br /> Yp(t—z) <br /> � <br /> Ypt = wYp(t—i) + (1—w) Z=2 4 <br /> where Ypt is the grade progression ratio at a point p in year t,and w is the weight. This weight is 0.4 in the <br /> first year and 0.15 for each of the four prior years. <br /> Assumptions <br /> The ten-year forecast was made with the following assumptions: <br /> • Individuals who are currently enrolled in alternative schooling options (home school, charters, and <br /> privates)will stay in these options. <br /> • No new assumptions were made about increases in private school enrollment, beyond the current <br /> growth trends. <br /> • Births in Wake County will have small but steady increases,reflecting continued population growth. <br /> • Grade progression ratios(GPRs)ignore the impacts of COVID-19 in 2020 and are based on observed <br /> transitions between 2017-2019 and 2021-2023. <br /> • Two new charters will impact in 2024-25,and we continue to provide additional analysis of the impacts <br /> of potential charter openings. <br /> • While home sales and building permits are down again this year, we are not including any new as- <br /> sumptions about impacts on school enrollment based on these trends. <br /> Projecting Fertility <br /> While Wake County births decreased during 2020,they rebounded in 2021 to the highest level since 2016 and <br /> had a small decline in 2022 and 2023. We assumed births will continue to stabilize and then grow,reflecting <br /> overall strong population growth in Wake County. Births were projected based on a linear regression of the <br /> last 20 years of births in Wake County. <br /> Table 6. Wake County Resident Live Births <br /> 2023 estimated,2024-2028 projected <br /> 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 <br /> 13,168 13,145 13,019 13,308 13,374 13,440 13,505 13,571 <br /> Accounting for Missing Kindergartners <br /> Month 2 kindergarten enrollment was nearly 750 students lower than expected based on the number of births <br /> in 2018 and historical kindergarten yields. These missing kindergartners could enroll directly in Grade 1 <br /> 18 <br />