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<br /> Table 5. WCPSS Changes in Membership by Grade,2023-24 vs.2022-23 and Forecast
<br /> Membership by Grade
<br /> 2022-23(actual) 2023-24(forecast) 2023-24(actual) Net Gain(2023-24-2022-23) Percentage Change Variance(actual-forecast)
<br /> K 10,963 11,728 11,053 90 0.8% -675
<br /> 1 11,629 12,199 11,416 -213 -1.8% -783
<br /> 2 11,264 11,776 12,008 744 6.6% 232
<br /> 3 11,496 11,248 11,476 -20 -0.2% 228
<br /> 4 11,360 11,543 11,792 432 3.8% 249
<br /> 5 11,766 11,426 11,704 -62 -0.5% 278
<br /> 6 11,776 11,624 11,707 -69 -0.6% 83
<br /> 7 12,173 11,908 12,042 -131 -1.1% 134
<br /> 8 12,617 12,276 12,499 -118 -0.9% 223
<br /> 9 14,822 14,554 14,954 132 0.9% 400
<br /> 10 13,835 13,588 13,576 -259 -1.9% -12
<br /> 11 12,628 13,115 13,197 569 4.5% 82
<br /> 12 12,083 12,066 12,571 488 4.0% 505
<br /> Total 158,412 159,051 159,995 1,583 1.0% 944
<br /> Source:Month 2 ADM.Principal's Monthly Report,NC DPI and WCPSS Technology
<br /> Membership by Level
<br /> 2022-23(actual) 2023-24(forecast) 2023-24(actual) Net Gain(2023-24-2022-23) Percentage Change Variance(actual-forecast)
<br /> K-5 68,478 69,920 69,449 971 1.4% -471
<br /> 6-8 36,566 35,808 36,248 -318 -0.9% 440
<br /> 9-12 53,368 53,323 54,298 930 1.7% 975
<br /> Total 158,412 159,051 159,995 1,583 1.0%a 944
<br /> Source:Month 2 ADM.Principal's Monthly Report,NC DPI and WCPSS Technology
<br /> 2023-24 Ten-Year K-12 Forecast
<br /> The 2023-24 ten-year K-12 forecast is based on the Month 2 Average Daily Membership(ADM)as reported
<br /> by Wake County Public Schools(WCPSS).
<br /> Methodology
<br /> Future enrollments in WCPSS were projected using the grade progression methodology described by the
<br /> Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education(WICHE)8.
<br /> More specifically,projections were calculated using a grade progression ratio(GPR),which uses data from
<br /> kindergarten through twelfth grades to project enrollments in future years. A five-year smoothed average
<br /> BBransberger,Peace and Demaree K.Michelau. 2016. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates. 9th
<br /> ed.Boulder,CO:Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
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