Orange County NC Website
20 <br /> Table of contents <br /> Executive Summary 2 <br /> Statewide Trends 3 <br /> Long-Range Forecast: Assumptions&Threats to Model 4 <br /> Impacts of Market Share Changes on Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 <br /> Market Share Trends,2013-14 to 2022-23 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 <br /> Charter and Private School Growth and Implications for Future Market Share . . . . 7 <br /> Kindergarten Enrollments Remain Below Expectations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 <br /> Grade-Level Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 <br /> Attendance Violations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 <br /> Impacts on Wake County Charter Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 <br /> Impacts on Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 <br /> Impacts of Migration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 <br /> Impacts of Population Structure and Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 <br /> 2022-23 Forecast Performance 16 <br /> 2023-24 Ten-Year K-12 Forecast 17 <br /> Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 <br /> Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 <br /> Projecting Fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 <br /> Accounting for Missing Kindergartners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 <br /> Charter School Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 <br /> Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 <br /> Concerns/Unknowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 <br /> 1 <br />