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39 <br /> Section II Attachment II.13.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) <br /> (Page 4 of 4) <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> School Membership 2022-2023 School Year (November 15, 2022) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed ranging from 161 students below to 53 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 75 students below the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 81 students between November 15, 2021 and <br /> November 14, 2022. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were low, ranging from 12 students to 89 students above below <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 56 students below the actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The actual membership decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2021 and <br /> November 14, 2022. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were low, ranging from 10 students to 110 students below actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 42 students below actual membership. <br /> • The actual membership increased by 10 students between November 15, 2021 and <br /> November 14, 2022. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were mixed, ranging from 276 students below to <br /> 8 students above actual membership. On average, the projections were 173 students <br /> below the actual membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 75 students, which is the sum of-81 at <br /> Elementary, -4 at Middle, and +10 at High. <br /> 25 <br />