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51 <br /> Section II <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory <br /> Committee (SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br /> certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition —The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections resulting <br /> from the average of the five models represented by 10-year numerical membership <br /> projections by school level for each school district. This does not represent the year-by- <br /> year growth rate that may be positive or negative,but rather the average of the annual <br /> anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment ILD.2 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth The membership figures and percentage <br /> on the attachments show a decline in student growth on the attachments show a decline <br /> membership at each school level within the in student membership at each school <br /> system. Projected Average Annual Growth Rate level within the system. Projected <br /> over next ten years: Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br /> ten years: <br /> School Year Projection Made School Year Projection Made <br /> 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- <br /> Level 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Level 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 <br /> Elementary 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14 Elementary 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14 <br /> Middle -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96 Middle 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44 <br /> High 0.03% -1.44% 1 -2.15% -2.09% -1.83 High 0.21% -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91 <br /> 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. <br /> 37 <br />