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41 <br /> Section II Attachment II.B.3—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2023-24) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2023-2024 School Year (November 15, 2023) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT (3C) <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 17 students below to 33 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 4 students between November 15, 2022 and <br /> November 14, 2023. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 3 students below to 69 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 9 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 19 students between November 15, 2022 and <br /> November 14, 2023. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were high, ranging from 33 students to 88 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 64 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 105 students between November 15, 2022 and <br /> November 14, 2023. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all high, ranging from 69 to 88 students <br /> above actual membership. On average, the projections were 81 students above actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 128 students, which is the sum of-4 at <br /> Elementary, -19 at Middle, and -105 at High. <br /> 27 <br />