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27 <br /> Slide #10 <br /> Membership Forecast: Out-Of-Capacitor Tables <br /> Orange County Schools- SAPFO Capacities <br /> ?02814 I 2DQ"4 1 20243k =5 26 TMN 27 2027,7k 2778S9 NN4* 20M-, 2M b4 w—erac4r,arr <br /> }.ypri}L�drW <br /> [Nm4hluy pehloab <br /> Certrdl Ekarlmlaly N21201 206 285 290 2g3 866 316 334 242 247 8b1 <br /> "R ;I Oh44k4 EhnlwWlrY G,a*9td�ri EIY"" 406 4A2 414 918 a,g 919 417 416 412 414 414 <br /> Hillbni-V 11mr— o 45T 4M 4ET 4h7 d37Me.Hopp Elwrgrdpry 519 510 525 528 5" <br /> S12 316 307 30:5 30& 101 292 294 2A6 2@1 204 Capacily L u—d <br /> RMG Pw%EI4r119rlhly <br /> TON" 5981 7056 5U2 365g 4474 3104 M17 5157 3184 $175 5200 3711 K 9��0 <br /> Wimlo sm-4"(E 81 9i4o-+Ud <br /> A L Sta"Dack MIddI9 740 &13 930 633 655 &W 062 663 670 678 696 996 y0A1'h-19d7i <br /> f,,MZ NI h14dp1 7pp 1 4111 1 4105 46J 4715 506 525 562 578 5W 614 627 <br /> OrlryiF M4144 1 725 1 495 1 590 547 5W S41 54" W 547 534 ."S+• 599i <br /> T.W. 21" iM ism 1W Im ,d94 17l1 176i 17M lam ii45 fAih <br /> Nigh 9.cllcal.10,19* <br /> C:"r Ru3r FI n +8W 1117 1136 1179 +14.7 +167 1174 1173 1= 1260 iZ56 >13+i <br /> Orw,gp High 139q 1 1259 118U 1191 1253 12M 1+2" 1334 1W5 1377 <br /> Partrurshp Ara�rnY � aprr.nw ad,ra.m <br /> rmau mm ZM m p am 2576 ZM RM A61V I!m RN7 gp 4 am <br /> Imlrw HrTnnpanrlm <br /> M1rircM1 aMCOuarlm <br /> SyaE`rn Tmal 944M 7'Lii l68S 78yd 7181 72i@ 7975 74A4 71d8 706 }71G 7d34 M1mnan`r.snn4n.rtr <br /> mn:IGXfnUS <br /> Commissioner McKee asked what impact redistricting would have regarding the less than <br /> 95% capacity. <br /> Chair Bedford asked Kirk Vaughn why the Board is doing this. <br /> Kirk Vaughn said the current SAPFO is a mathematical model. He said that this will take <br /> historical enrollment and capture the impact of new development. <br /> Commissioner Hamilton thanked them all for this effort. She said she would like to see <br /> and understand what the student generation formulas are. She asked how they can know that it <br /> is the case for Orange County. She said that she is happy to go into closed session if that is <br /> something that cannot be shared publicly but that it is very important to her to understand the <br /> model. She asked how they check to make sure the assumptions are accurate. <br /> Thomas Dudley said that the SGR shows the students come from the new developments. <br /> He said they model that based on other neighborhoods of similar size and location. <br /> Commissioner Hamilton asked if they could see the model. <br /> Thomas Dudley said that he will talk that over with staff. <br /> Commissioner Portie-Ascott asked if there is any accounting for students who may leave <br /> public schools for charter schools. <br /> Thomas Dudley said their model assumes that students will continue leaving public <br /> schools for charters at the current rate they are already leaving. <br /> Commissioner Hamilton said it would be good to have some way to see what may drive <br /> an increase of students at Partnership Academy and Phoenix Academy. She said it seems <br /> unrealistic that it would stay the same. <br /> Chair Bedford said that the Partnership Academy is moving. <br /> Commissioner McKee said they are moving to the old facility on Hwy 70 and this is an <br /> improvement for lunches and athletic fields. <br /> Kirk Vaughn said he got those answers from school staff. He said that enrollment is based <br /> on growth and district and charter is based on application rates. He said that was how they <br /> modeled the future numbers. <br />