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4. County Staff Update: OREd Projection Update <br /> Kirk informed the workgroup that OREd has presented draft capacity tables <br /> for both districts to the district staff and Orange County Budget Office. <br /> A reminder of what OREd is and how it fits into this process: <br /> OREd—improves our projections for enrollment by looking at land <br /> use and projected developments that add students as they get built. That is <br /> helpful as we build out the projection while looking at future capacity and <br /> future capital needs. In draft report, neither district is showing out of <br /> capacity over the 10-year period. The capacity numbers that OREd use are <br /> from the projections we give them based on our new SAPFO projections. <br /> That information has assumptions and limitations that we have identified in <br /> the past. <br /> Since Woolpert has more recent review of the buildings and different space <br /> assumptions for different usage(ex: PreK and EC), OREd is going to build <br /> a capacity numbers using Woolpert data. We will see how the capacity <br /> tables are impacted by that. As the Board approves different phases of the <br /> Woolpert Model, we will get information on how each of those phases and <br /> projects affect capacity. That information can be overlaid as capital projects <br /> move forward and how they affect capacity in the next 10 yrs. <br /> Bonnie: What is the timetable for updating the SAPFO agreement? <br /> Travis: As part of the MOU,if we are going to change the projection model, <br /> we need to provide notice to parties by February. Between getting updated <br /> projections from ORED with adjusted PreK and EC assumptions and <br /> February, we will make the determination on which projections to use for <br /> the MOU moving forward. <br /> Bonnie: We are in the middle of a redistricting process. We added EC, <br /> PreK, and specials back into model and it threw the #'s off by 10%, which <br /> has created a semi-urgent problem. Dwayne can provide the updated <br /> numbers. It is creating a dilemma because if we move one school from <br /> 120% capacity, we end up with 2 others that are at 120% capacity. <br /> Jean: It is important to get the capacities to reflect what is actually going on <br /> in the classrooms. It is important to understand the assumptions the <br /> projections are based on such as items how many children in schools are <br /> generated from new developments and what is the impact of the older <br /> communities as residents turn over and bring in families with school age <br />