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48 <br /> Section H <br /> C. Student Membership Projections <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical Advisory <br /> Committee (SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report certifications. <br /> Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and comments to the <br /> BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition —The result of the average of the five student projection models <br /> represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level (Elementary, <br /> Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> and Orange County School District). <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> The 5 model average discussed in Section II.B The 5 model average discussed in Section <br /> (Student Projection Methodology). See II.B (Student Projection Methodology). See <br /> Attachment II.C.4 Attachment II.C.3 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease <br /> and negative growth rate for all three school levels for both districts in the 10-year <br /> projection period. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year-by-year <br /> percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models were <br /> updated using current (November 15, 2023) memberships. Ten years of student <br /> membership were projected thereafter. <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District <br /> Elementary <br /> The previous year(2022-23)projections for November 2023 at this level were overestimated by <br /> 6 students. The actual membership decreased by 82 students. Over the past ten years, this level <br /> has experienced a decrease in nine out of ten school years, including this year. Growth rates <br /> during the past ten years have ranged from -8.76% to +1.20%. The district's eleventh <br /> elementary school,Northside Elementary School, opened in 2013. Capacity was decreased in <br /> 2017-18 due to changes in class size averages for kindergarten to third grade by the North <br /> Carolina State Legislature. The need for an additional elementary school is not anticipated in the <br /> 10-year projection period. <br /> 30 <br />