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41 <br /> Section II Attachment 11.B.2—Student Membership Projection Models Performance Analysis (2022-23) <br /> (Page 2 of 4) <br /> Orange County School District <br /> School Membership 2022-2023 School Year (November 15, 2022) <br /> Statistical Findings <br /> PROJECTION TYPE ABBREVIATIONS <br /> `TISCHLER' LINEAR (T) 10-YEAR COHORT (10C) <br /> ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING (OCP) 5-YEAR COHORT (5C) <br /> 3-YEAR COHORT 3C <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> • Projections were low, ranging from 44 students to 76 students below actual membership. <br /> On average, the projections were 59 students below actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 36 students between November 15, 2021 and <br /> November 14, 2022. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 1 student below to 54 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 24 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually decreased by 58 students between November 15, 2021 and <br /> November 14, 2022. <br /> High School Level <br /> • Projections were mixed, ranging from 51 students below to 67 students above actual <br /> membership. On average, the projections were 21 students above actual membership. <br /> • The membership actually increased by 15 students between November 15, 2021 and <br /> November 14, 2022. <br /> TOTAL <br /> • The totals of all school level projections were all low, ranging from 8 to 46 students <br /> below actual membership. On average, the projections were 14 students below actual <br /> membership. <br /> • The membership decreased in total by 7 students, which is the sum of +36 at <br /> Elementary, -58 at Middle, and +15 at High. <br /> 23 <br />