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38 <br /> Section II <br /> B. Student Membership Projection Methodology <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change—This section is reviewed and <br /> recommended by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee (SAPFOTAC) to the BOCC for change, if necessary. <br /> 2. Definition —The method(s)by which student memberships are calculated for future <br /> years to determine total membership at each combined school level (Elementary, <br /> Middle, and High School)which take into consideration historical membership totals <br /> at a specific time (November 15) in the school year. These methods are also known as <br /> 'models'. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill-Carrboro City School District Orange County School District <br /> Presently, the average of five models is being used: namely 3, 5, and 10-year history/cohort <br /> survival methods, Orange County Planning Department Linear Wave, and Tischler Linear <br /> methods. Attachment II.B.I includes a description of each model. <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br /> Performance of the models is monitored each year. The value of a projection model is <br /> in its prediction of school level capacities at least three years in advance of capacity <br /> shortfalls so the annual Capital Investment Plan(CIP)updates can respond <br /> proactively with siting, design, and construction. Attachment II.B.I includes a <br /> description of each model. Attachment II.B.3 shows the performance of the models <br /> for the 2023-24 school year from the prior year projection. <br /> 5. Recommendation: <br /> Analysis on the accuracy of the results is showing fairly accurate results, particularly for the <br /> average of all five models/ Orange County Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years <br /> ago at all three school levels (Elementary, Middle, and High). Chapel Hill-Carrboro City <br /> Schools has lower enrollment numbers than 10 years ago at the Elementary and Middle levels <br /> while the High School level has experienced enrollment growth over the past 10 years. The <br /> historic growth rate is recorded by the models, but projected future growth is more difficult to <br /> accurately quantify. In all areas of the county,proposed growth is not included in the SAPFO <br /> projection system until actual students are enrolled. The system is updated in November of each <br /> year,becoming part of the historical projection base. <br /> 20 <br />