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10 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2023-2024 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2023-2024 in that given year.The second column for <br /> each year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low <br /> compared to the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual. <br /> Year Projection Made for 2023-2024 Membership <br /> Actual 202 <br /> 3Membershi 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 <br /> Elementary 3055 3321 H266 3320 1 H265 2994 L61 3000 L55 3063 H8 <br /> Middle 1579 1710 H131 1713 1 H134 1611 H32 1622 H43 1588 H9 <br /> High 2382 2426 H44 2433 1 H51 2367 L15 2508 H126 2446 H64 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate....................................(Change)..............Pg. 37 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate Over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hilt/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year Projection 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- 2019- 2020- 2021- 2022- 2023- <br /> Made: 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 <br /> Elementary 0.65% -0.23% -0.88% -0.47% -1.14% 0.84% -0.02% -0.04% 0.26% -0.14% <br /> Middle -0.07% -1.50% -2.10% -1.77% -1.96% 0.37% -0.67% -0.72% -0.15% -0.44% <br /> High 0.03% -1.44% -2.15% -2.09% -1.83% 0.21% 1 -0.98% -1.06% 0.98% -0.91% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate ..................................(No Change)........Pg. 40 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (Based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105%LOS standard(current LOS is 80.8%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to increase but remain negative <br /> over the next 10 years (average -1.14%%per year compared to an average of-1.89% <br /> over the past 10 years). <br /> C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary School in the 10- <br /> year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107%LOS standard(current LOS is 92.3%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and remain negative <br /> over the next 10 years (average -1.96% compared to an average of-0.48% over the <br /> past 10 years). <br /> C. Projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle School in the 10-year <br /> projection period. <br /> High School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed the 110% LOS standard(current LOS is 100.0%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease and be negative over <br /> the next 10 years (average -1.83% compared to+0.56% over the past 10 years). <br /> ii <br />