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27 <br /> 1 Slide #10 <br /> Membership Forecast: Out-of-Capacity Tables <br /> Orange County Schools- SAPFO Capacities <br /> icQwli,r t'�rW Yn«ti I•er.� b Mnr.,.pLY n„ <br /> I =-U 1 =-a x21426 202.x? 2NI-2i +.. =23-19 W29a1 902a-31 ioal2ON->a MIJ 31 �,.na.e wcc4x <br /> W.W"mi mry UM*19 I1f41 1 nLarl�ia+eltl 1 <br /> Cero'S1 Ekenenri 429 2G1 296 28,5 29 293 965 316 934 842 347 364 <br /> U11Wn4 Ct175ki E4irp'4gty A$ <br /> a'"81 <br /> W.a5 Ekefl v%" A50 496 462 414 418 4t& 419 417 419 41 <br /> aln2 414 414 <br /> Hl4dlu�Elsmwaery 425 <br /> Nrm Hopp Elon'gniarq Sts 514 S1U 52t <br /> Paniwao Elehti wry° 510 812 316 377 3041 306 391 2S2 284 299 291 264 Capacity Legend <br /> 9r"P4dtt E17m9n4ily SC2 <br /> 7e14" 5361 3055 1043 949D 3*74 3164 9117 $157 1184 $173 990 5711 <br /> wl+�tgat:lter4Y+(t6-a] _ gS'w,-1pv , <br /> A L SMoatk MIddk 740 693 839 633 655 544 662 643 670 575 E86 558 188%_18616 <br /> 0 N1111 y HU ddo 7W 411 405 463 47S 300 575 4152 575 507 616 627 <br /> 'Oa4M1f44 Nlm* 724 535 590 a.t7 � 549 _ 5A4_ 549 542 5W $112 539 <br /> Toa h. 2166 1$579 WA 1543 1641 1494 •€31 1768_--1190 4dtii.d 7445 1863 <br /> High Sahoo44a 10 42'4 <br /> Cotler 8,7,24 1 111T 11 �1 114] I.: I'.'- I '60 1313,- <br /> CrergaHN 1392 1222 1239 Iii' '- <br /> F'mlRarshpAudnlry �dty 42- 42 42 42 4-1 426 42 42r 42 42 c ,n�nra.ararae <br /> TCiW I ■ I $393 I 3414 ?324 7376 3452 2441 7310 754E 7657 7&84 7779 CBarinlahxarnv <br /> Imlrw M1or Tnropararlm <br /> _s ®__.® ^-_—nM1?NCO uarlm <br /> SyeWn Tmal 9454 5016 9G� 1'47d 7133 'f4Si T3ffi _.7432 7529 4536 7T3] 7854 M1a.har„nra s.ar.N.ra, <br /> mn:lly]� <br /> 2 <br /> 3 Commissioner McKee asked what impact redistricting would have regarding the less than <br /> 4 95% capacity. <br /> 5 Chair Bedford asked Kirk Vaughn why the Board is doing this. <br /> 6 Kirk Vaughn said the current SAPFO is a mathematical model. He said that this will take <br /> 7 historical enrollment and capture the impact of new development. <br /> 8 Commissioner Hamilton thanked them all for this effort. She said she would like to see <br /> 9 and understand what the student generation formulas are. She asked how they can know that it <br /> 10 is the case for Orange County. She said that she is happy to go into closed session if that is <br /> 11 something that cannot be shared publicly but that it is very important to her to understand the <br /> 12 model. She asked how they check to make sure the assumptions are accurate. <br /> 13 Thomas Dudley said that the SGR shows the students come from the new developments. <br /> 14 He said they model that based on other neighborhoods of similar size and location. <br /> 15 Commissioner Hamilton asked if they could see the model. <br /> 16 Thomas Dudley said that he will talk that over with staff. <br /> 17 Commissioner Portie-Ascott asked if there is any accounting for students who may leave <br /> 18 public schools for charter schools. <br /> 19 Thomas Dudley said their model assumes that students will continue leaving public <br /> 20 schools for charters at the current rate they are already leaving. <br /> 21 Commissioner Hamilton said it would be good to have some way to see what may drive <br /> 22 an increase of students at Partnership Academy and Phoenix Academy. She said it seems <br /> 23 unrealistic that it would stay the same. <br /> 24 Chair Bedford said that the Partnership Academy is moving. <br /> 25 Commissioner McKee said they are moving to the old facility on Hwy 70 and this is an <br /> 26 improvement for lunches and athletic fields. <br /> 27 Kirk Vaughn said he got those answers from school staff. He said that enrollment is based <br /> 28 on growth and district and charter is based on application rates. He said that was how they <br /> 29 modeled the future numbers. <br /> 30 <br /> 31 <br />