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22 <br /> 1 able to make its own capacity estimates for the districts. These estimates can exclude the <br /> 2 classrooms that the districts have identified as being reserved for Pre-K. EC classrooms are <br /> 3 calculated as having a much smaller capacity than general classrooms. The estimates also have <br /> 4 a formula to account for course diversity, like arts, band and languages classes that require <br /> 5 different rooms. It prorates the capacity of each school to 95% at the Elementary level, 85% at <br /> 6 the Middle School level and 75%at the High School level. Based on utilizing the Woolpert capacity <br /> 7 framework, capacity in the districts increases by 78 students. If the Board of Commissioners <br /> 8 changes capacity policy to exclude Pre-K classrooms, the capacity drops by 574 seats, resulting <br /> 9 in a net decrease of 496. The table below illustrates the changes in calculation at both districts <br /> 10 and at each level. <br /> Chapel Hill -11 <br /> Carrboro . . Middle <br /> SAPFO Capacity 5664 2944 3975 12583 <br /> Woolpert Capacity(/excluding Pre-K) 5704/5334 2993 3701 12398/12028 <br /> Difference (/excluding Pre-K) +40/-330 +49 -274 -185/-555 <br /> Orange County SchoolsMiddle <br /> SAPFO Capacity 3361 2166 2939 8466 <br /> Woolpert Capacity(/excluding Pre-K) 3655/3451 2396 2678 8729/8525 <br /> Difference (/excluding Pre-K) +294/+90 +230 -261 +263/+59 <br /> 12 <br /> 13 In reviewing the ORECI projections against both capacity models, no district exceeds the CAPS <br /> 14 threshold of 105%, 107% or 110% for Elementary, Middle and High School. That threshold <br /> 15 represents the point at which CAPS could no longer be issued for new developments, and the <br /> 16 County must plan for a school expansion. In both districts, the high school enrollment will exceed <br /> 17 100% capacity at different points in the 10-year horizon with the Woolpert Capacity calculation. <br /> 18 <br /> 19 Kirk Vaughn, Budget Director, introduced Thomas Dudley and Brian Godfrey. <br /> 20 Thomas Dudley of ITRE made the following presentation: <br /> 21 <br /> 22 Slide #1 <br /> School Enrollment Projections <br /> OREd Land Use Study <br /> (OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORY <br /> (TRE <br /> INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH AND EDUCATION o.•«�.(n+���"l�,°nM`« <br /> CENTENNIAL CAMPUS iP NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY <br /> JANUARY 16, 2024 <br /> 23 <br />