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21 <br /> 1 Vice-Chair Greene said she continues to be impressed by the affordable housing <br /> 2 providers and their collaboration. <br /> 3 <br /> 4 VOTE: Ayes, 6 (Commissioner Fowler, Commissioner Hamilton, Commissioner Portie- <br /> 5 Ascott, Chair Bedford, Vice-Chair Greene, Commissioner McKee), Nays, 1 (Commissioner <br /> 6 Richards) <br /> 7 <br /> 8 MOTION PASSES <br /> 9 <br /> 10 <br /> 11 7. Reports <br /> 12 a. Presentation of School Membership Proiections and School Capacity Calculations <br /> 13 The Board received presentations from the NC State Operations Research and Education <br /> 14 Laboratory (OREd) on its ten-year school membership projections and from County staff on <br /> 15 utilizing the Woolpert capacity calculation. <br /> 16 <br /> 17 BACKGROUND: Over the past year, the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTEC, <br /> 18 a technical advisory committee, have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate <br /> 19 Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection and capacity determination process, <br /> 20 based on commonly identified limitations of the process. The County has worked with OREd and <br /> 21 Woolpert to develop alternative enrollment projection and capacity calculations frameworks. <br /> 22 OREd and County staff will present these updated frameworks. <br /> 23 <br /> 24 OREd Enrollment Projections <br /> 25 The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based <br /> 26 on historic enrollment. Through the Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test, the <br /> 27 County receives information from Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, and the County's planning <br /> 28 departments regarding future residential development, but does not directly utilize that information <br /> 29 in the future year projections. <br /> 30 <br /> 31 Through a review of peer counties, County planning staff identified that most nearby counties use <br /> 32 OREd to provide student enrollment projections. Both districts also have worked with OREd in <br /> 33 prior years, and Orange County Schools is currently working with OREd through its ongoing <br /> 34 redistricting process. <br /> 35 <br /> 36 OREd utilizes land-use and future residential development projections directly in its ten-year <br /> 37 enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and <br /> 38 makes estimates of generation rates of future developments based on similar existing <br /> 39 neighborhoods. OREd has worked with the districts and the planning departments of the County <br /> 40 and all municipalities, including Mebane, to make its own enrollment projections for both districts. <br /> 41 <br /> 42 Woolpert Capacity Calculations <br /> 43 The current SAPFO utilizes the building capacity estimates based on state and school district <br /> 44 guidelines as established in 2002. The capacity estimates have been updated based on <br /> 45 renovations, additions, and changes to state guidelines in the intervening decades, but the <br /> 46 underlying base assumptions have not been reviewed in that time. The base assumptions also <br /> 47 have not been updated to accommodate Pre-K and Exceptional Children (EC) classrooms. <br /> 48 <br /> 49 As a part of the Woolpert assessment and long-term capital planning contract, the consultants <br /> 50 went through each school building and conducted a thorough review of the size, condition, and <br /> 51 type of each room. After accounting for each type of room present in each building, Woolpert was <br />