Agenda 01-16-24; 7-a - Presentation of School Membership Projections and School Capacity Calculations

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2 neighborhoods. OREd has worked with the districts and the planning departments of the County and all municipalities, including Mebane, to make its own enrollment projections for both districts. Woolpert Capacity Calculations The current SAPFO utilizes the building capacity estimates based on state and school district guidelines as established in 2002. The capacity estimates have been updated based on renovations, additions, and changes to state guidelines in the intervening decades, but the underlying base assumptions have not been reviewed in that time. The base assumptions also have not been updated to accommodate Pre-K and Exceptional Children (EC) classrooms. As a part of the Woolpert assessment and long-term capital planning contract, the consultants went through each school building and conducted a thorough review of the size, condition, and type of each room. After accounting for each type of room present in each building, Woolpert was able to make its own capacity estimates for the districts. These estimates can exclude the classrooms that the districts have identified as being reserved for Pre-K. EC classrooms are calculated as having a much smaller capacity than general classrooms. The estimates also have a formula to account for course diversity, like arts, band and languages classes that require different rooms. It prorates the capacity of each school to 95% at the Elementary level, 85% at the Middle School level and 75% at the High School level. Based on utilizing the Woolpert capacity framework, capacity in the districts increases by 78 students. If the Board of Commissioners changes capacity policy to exclude Pre-K classrooms, the capacity drops by 574 seats, resulting in a net decrease of 496. The table below illustrates the changes in calculation at both districts and at each level. CarrboroChapel Hill - City SchoolsMiddle SAPFO Capacity 5664 2944 3975 12583 Woolpert Capacity(/excluding Pre-K) 5704/5334 2993 3701 12398/ 12028 Difference (/excluding Pre-K) +40/-330 +49 -274 -185/-555 • 11;;'11 i 11 U111C7 MU&N MT. . . SAPFO Capacity 3361 2166 2939 8466 Woolpert Capacity(/excluding Pre-K) 3655/3451 2396 2678 8729/8525 Difference (/excluding Pre-K) +294/+90 +230 -261 +263/+S9 In reviewing the OREd projections against both capacity models, no district exceeds the CAPS threshold of 105%, 107% or 110% for Elementary, Middle and High School. That threshold represents the point at which CAPS could no longer be issued for new developments, and the County must plan for a school expansion. In both districts, the high school enrollment will exceed 100% capacity at different points in the 10-year horizon with the Woolpert Capacity calculation. FINANCIAL IMPACT: There is no financial impact associated with the presentations. SOCIAL JUSTICE IMPACT: There are no Orange County Social Justice Goal impacts associated with this item. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT: There are no Orange County Environmental Responsibility Goal impacts associated with this item.