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1 <br /> ORANGE COUNTY <br /> BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS <br /> ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT <br /> Meeting Date: January 16, 2024 <br /> Action Agenda <br /> Item No. 7-a <br /> SUBJECT: Presentation of School Membership Projections and School Capacity <br /> Calculations <br /> DEPARTMENT: County Manager <br /> ATTACHMENT(S): INFORMATION CONTACT: <br /> Attachment 1. OREd Out of Capacity Kirk Vaughn, (919) 245-2153 <br /> Tables <br /> Attachment 2. Woolpert School Capacity <br /> Calculations for Orange <br /> County <br /> PURPOSE: To receive presentations from the NC State Operations Research and Education <br /> Laboratory (OREd) on its ten-year school membership projections and from County staff on <br /> utilizing the Woolpert capacity calculation. <br /> BACKGROUND: Over the past year, the School Capital Needs Workgroup and the SAPFOTEC, <br /> a technical advisory committee, have discussed making improvements to the School Adequate <br /> Public Facilities Ordinance (SAPFO) enrollment projection and capacity determination process, <br /> based on commonly identified limitations of the process. The County has worked with OREd and <br /> Woolpert to develop alternative enrollment projection and capacity calculations frameworks. <br /> OREd and County staff will present these updated frameworks. <br /> OREd Enrollment Projections <br /> The County currently projects future enrollment through a series of mathematical formulas based <br /> on historic enrollment. Through the Certificate of Adequate Public Schools (CAPS) test, the <br /> County receives information from Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Hillsborough, and the County's planning <br /> departments regarding future residential development, but does not directly utilize that information <br /> in the future year projections. <br /> Through a review of peer counties, County planning staff identified that most nearby counties use <br /> OREd to provide student enrollment projections. Both districts also have worked with OREd in <br /> prior years, and Orange County Schools is currently working with OREd through its ongoing <br /> redistricting process. <br /> OREd utilizes land-use and future residential development projections directly in its ten-year <br /> enrollment projections. It determines the student generation rates of specific neighborhoods and <br /> makes estimates of generation rates of future developments based on similar existing <br />