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- 1 <br /> Y <br /> JEW,r - <br /> To determine what the County's emissions might look like in 2050, a series of <br /> GHG emissions forecasts were developed.As illustrated in Figure D,a Business- <br /> As-Usual (BAU) forecast was developed to forecast the County's emissions <br /> without any additional action from federal, state, or local governments. A <br /> series of growth factors such as population and household growth were <br /> applied to the County's baseline emissions. Without any additional action, <br /> the County's emissions are expected to increase from 1,631,671 metric tons in <br /> 2019 to 1,813,315 metric tons in 2050. <br /> To project the County's emissions in 2050 including the expected impacts of <br /> state and local actions, an Adjusted Business-As-Usual (ABAU) forecast was <br /> developed. This forecast, shown in Figure E, includes expected increases in <br /> fuel economy and building energy efficiency in North Carolina, as well as the <br /> local utility companies'commitments to 50%emissions reduction in 2030 and <br /> net zero emissions by 2050. Further methodology on the emission forecast <br /> can be found in Appendix B. The ABAU shows the emissions in Orange County <br /> dropping from 1,631,671 MT CO2e per year to 947,191 MT CO2e per year. <br /> 2023 CLIMATE ACTION PLAN ORANGE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA 31 <br />